Morning Comments; Thursday, January 31st, 2019
MaxYield Cooperative - SETZ - Thu Jan 31, 5:31AM CST

Corn and soybean futures are mixed this morning.

Soybeans have been under pressure much of the week as Brazil’s weather has been less threatening this week than in recent weeks. Private firms continue to make reductions to crop production estimates. Trade is become less concerned with cuts as it is well known that supplies are burdensome. Looking at combined soybean production from Brazil and Argentina, it is expected that this year will likely be higher than each of the past 5 years production, except for 2017. That year the combined production totaled 180 MMT.

Another factor pressuring soybeans is the looming soybean export discrepancy between actual shipments and USDA forecasts. Now that it has been stated that the USDA will release their delayed January report, many are concerned how large of a reduction will be made. Currently, shipments are 482 million bushels behind the pace needed to reach the USDA’s figure. It is highly unlikely they will make an adjustment that large, but even as little as 50 million bushel reduction puts carryout over 1 billion bushels for the first time in US history.

Export sales are said to be released today for the first time since the government shutdown. Today’s release is expected to include sales data for the week of December 22nd as well as current sales. The USDA is expected to release sales data from past weeks that weren’t released during the shutdown each week, along with current sales until all sales have been reported. It is expected to be current on the February 21st report.

Market Movers; Chinese trade negotiations, exports sales and fund activity.


Market Commentary provided by:

Karl Setzer Grain Commentary