Top Farmer Midday Update 2-11-19
Stewart-Peterson Commentary - SPC - Mon Feb 11, 10:59AM CST

Corn: Corn futures have slipped below the recent trading range and have continued trading lower after Friday's USDA reports. Mar corn is down 1-3/4 cents to 3.72-1/2, May corn is down 2 cents to 3.80-1/4, and Jul corn is down 2 cents to 3.88. New crop Dec corn is down 2-1/4 cents to 3.97. Last Friday's reports were considered somewhat bearish, with U.S. and world ending stocks coming in above average market estimates. Even though quarterly stocks came in lower than expected, the market made a bearish outside session, and technical selling has continued this morning. Mar corn traded at its lowest level today since January 15, and Dec corn traded at its lowest level today since January 2. On this morning's Export Inspections report, a total of 744,000 tons of corn were reported shipped for the week ending February 7. This was lower than the previous week's total of 901,000 tons and the total for the same week last year at 847,000 tons. Still, current year shipments are running over 7 million tons ahead of last year's pace. During Friday's session, funds sold about 19,000 contracts of corn and are thought to be long about 42,000 contracts.

Soybeans: Soybean markets are lower today after receiving confirmation on Friday of heavy balance sheets. Mar beans are down 8 cents to 9.06-1/2, May beans are down 8-1/4 cents to 9.20-1/2, and Jul beans are down 7-3/4 cents to 9.34-1/2. New crop Nov beans are down 7-1/4 cents to 9.49-3/4. While Friday's supply and demand numbers came in slightly lower than expected, the USDA did provide confirmation of plentiful soybean supplies, both in the U.S. and worldwide. Given the current demand, soybeans may move lower as momentum indicators turn down and the market discourages soybean planting for this year. Trade talks between the U.S. and China begin again today, concluding later in the week with higher level talks. On this morning's Export Inspections report, 1.064 million tons of beans were reported shipped for the week ending February 7. This was lower than last week's total of 1.092 million tons and the total from the same week last year of 1.34 million tons. Shipments this year are running over 14 million tons behind last year's pace. Funds bought 2,000 contracts of beans on Friday and are thought to be long about 16,000 contracts.

Wheat: Wheat markets are lower this morning, with Mar Chi wheat down 4-1/2 cents to 5.12-3/4, Mar KC wheat is down 5-1/2 cents to 4.88-3/4, and Mar Mpls wheat is down 1-1/4 cents to 5.67-1/4. Exporters sold 120,000 tons of Chi wheat to Egypt this morning and 128,000 tons of KC wheat to Nigeria. The higher U.S. dollar is a major source of resistance for the wheat this morning, up for its eighth session in a row and trading at its highest level since December 26. 562,000 tons of wheat were reported shipped for the week ending February 7 versus 443,000 tons last week and 499,000 tons the same week last year. This was positive, but wheat shipments are still running about almost 2 million tons behind last year. Funds bought 6,000 contracts of wheat Friday and are thought to be short about 11,000 contracts.

Cattle: Cattle markets are lower this morning in early trade, with Feb lives down 5 cents to 127.32, Apr lives are down 25 cents to 127.67, and Jun lives are down 17 cents to 117.92. Feeders are up slightly, with Mar up 17 cents to 144.27. Cash trade on Friday reached as high as $125, $1 higher than the previous week. Retail beef values were strong as well. Snowy conditions this week should keep feed lots in poor shape and weight gain difficult. Supportive fundamentals don’t seem to be enough to keep prices rallying as speculators seem somewhat hesitant to keep buying just off of contract highs.

Hogs: Hog markets are mixed to mostly lower this morning, with Feb up 7 cents to 55.12, Apr is down 40 cents to 58.02, and Jun is down 12 cents to 74.25. Trading ranges so far today have been very tight, but downtrends are being extended lower. Feb traded at its lowest level today since August 9 and has come within 7 cents of contract lows. Summer contracts are quiet and mostly stable, with both Jun and Jul still holding Friday's lows. China trade negotiations and U.S. production pace will be the main points of focus this week.




Market Commentary provided by:

Stewart-Peterson
137 South Main Street, West Bend, WI 53095
Phone: 800-334-9779
E-mail: rmainville@stewart-peterson.com
Web: www.stewart-peterson.com